The figures do not include the cost of the administration’s IEEPA tariff regime, which PWBM has pegged at a separate $179 billion. This amount will likely need to be refunded to American companies, if not taxpayers, after the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of IEEPA tariffs..
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“We find that consumer prices have risen disproportionately in categories facing larger tariff increases,” Goldman Sachs said in a note to investors and analysts last autumn. An updated forecast this week estimated that “tariff pass-through increased core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) prices by about 0.7% through January and will raise prices by a further 0.1% in the remainder of 2026.”