When doing so, only the last option of the group may take an argument.
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However, if the war and the effective closure of the Strait stretch beyond the market’s four-week expectation, the economic consequences could become dire. If regional storage facilities run out of space and production is forced to shut down, the market will only be able to rebalance through forced “demand destruction”. “To generate substantial demand destruction, prices may have to rise into triple digit territory,” Struyven warned, adding that the length of the disruption is the single most important variable in the market right now. Every sustained 10% increase in crude oil prices raises headline inflation by about 0.3% and reduces disposable income by the same margin.
When the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran this weekend, prompting a military response across the Middle East, concerns spiraled from the humanitarian cost to the macroeconomic. On the latter, analysts have been carefully watching for signals that Iran may disrupt global oil supply, pushing prices higher as a result.