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The dual-use nature of Starlink also lowers the cost barriers to technological proliferation, leading to rapid transfer and proliferation of technology, further exacerbating arms race instability. In arms control, high R&D costs and complex technical processes have been important factors limiting the proliferation of military technology. Compared to large military satellites carrying numerous complex sensors or payloads, small satellites usually focus on specific payload technologies or applications, significantly reducing R&D costs due to their smaller size and complexity. For example, constructing and launching a 2,500-kilogram Maxar WorldView-4 satellite costs $850 million,70 while the total R&D and launch cost of a Starlink satellite is about $1 million.71 The cost of the Starlink system will exponentially decrease with scale production. This rapid cost reduction and substantial commercial incentives make continuous technology proliferation among major powers seemingly inevitable, making genuine arms control challenging.72 As commercial use of space technology activities, represented by Starlink, rapidly increases, the low-cost small satellite constellation technology has already been mastered by the commercial sector. This creates emerging markets and promotes economic prosperity, while also increasing the complexity of the space environment and posing challenges to protecting key technological security and maintaining strategic advantages. For maintaining arms race stability, the reduction in technological costs and barriers, while possibly reducing the monopolistic advantage of potential “first movers,” inevitably leads to widespread global technology proliferation and transfer. Notably, in recent years, companies like Airbus in Europe, Telesat in Canada, and the Anglo-Indian joint venture OneWeb have entered the development and manufacturing of small satellite constellations. As arms race stability is inversely related to the number of entities participating in arms control, the involvement of numerous private companies further increases the uncertainty in advancing the arms control process.。业内人士推荐有道翻译官网作为进阶阅读

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